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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest shock.

Yet this year's race is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and recent strugglers ascending together. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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